Okay okay, let's move past the questionably bad headline and the hyperbole set in place and let's have a real talk about Vince Velasquez, who put up a 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 Hits, 4 BBs, 7 Ks line against the Mets last night following a 4 ER and 7 baserunners...and 10 Ks in his 4 IP start last time out. Some of the underlying numbers show some bad luck here - 3.26 xFIP because of a 37.5% FB/HR rate (which is horrendous already but especially when coming from a major flyball pitcher), a .438 BABIP, and 65.2% LOB rate. All of that jazz means his ER per inning is obviously flawed, but you already knew that (to be fair, a 42.1% hard contact rate suggests there's some "bad luck" that isn't actually luck). Obviously Velasquez isn't going to be a 9.00 ERA guy. But can he be a 3.50 ERA or at least 3.70? How about a 1.20 WHIP? Well, his walk rate has never been respectable as it has always sat above 3.00 per nine, but the bigger issue that is often overlooked is his IPS. Velasquez only has nine innings in two starts thus far after putting up a poor 5.46 IPS in 2016. That means that even if he has a 9.00 K/9, he's still averaging under six Ks per start. Contrast that to someone like Rick Porcello who will average near the same strikeout production given his ability to go deeper into games despite a lower K%. So if you were paying for Velasquez's strikeouts, you might not actually be getting what you think you paid for and he's going to continue to have struggles in the ERA/WHIP department. The upside is obviously still there, though I wouldn't expect a major breakout at least in the first half of the year.
Let’s see how every other SP did yesterday:
