(Photo by Juan Salas/Icon Sportswire)
I know a lot of you are still on the fence about Caleb Smith and let me throw some numbers your way after his 5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks line last night. 29.2% K rate. 11.1% walk rate. 1.19 WHIP. 11.7% whiff rate. 3.70 ERA, 3.51 FIP, 3.82 SIERA. 57. 57? I don’t think that number gets enough love. Anyway, those marks on their own a bit shady – especially the walk rate and 3.82 SIERA – but what if I told you that those numbers drop to 7.8% and 3.39 across his last nine starts? He’s doing a much better job of locating his heater with a slider that has taken a step forward as well and while I’m not going to say he’s a Top 30 guy – I’m not 100% sold that his slider is that money pitch just yet – he’s owned in just 37% of leagues, slightly ahead of Trevor Williams and Danny Duffy and behind guys like Joe Musgrove, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Freeland, and Aaron Sanchez. That just seems so wrong to me. He’s not a name that people flock to and while you write it off as Blame it on the Padres last night, he gets the Giants twice, and Mets next, which I’m 75% for (stupid Coors). Go for this and don’t look back.
Let’s see how every other SP did Friday:
Dylan Covey – 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. I was tempted to lead with Dylan, but I think you might see a Going Deep soon on him and I’ll hold off a little for now. Quick hit from my perspective, his changeup is the highest whiff getting in his repertoire and it earns a sparkling 12.8% mark. He’s a big groundball guy – over 60% – and while I can understand him settling into a Toby role, it’s just not what I want to chase. In the end, Don’t Covey Thy Dylan.
J. A. Happ – 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. Fewer strikeouts than normal as Happ wasn’t able to hit the top third of the zone often with his four-seamer for whatever reason in this one, but hey, this still works so we’re all cool.
Trevor Bauer – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 12 Ks. Aces gonna ace. It’s pretty ridiculous how much of a step forward Bauer has taken after introducing that slider over a cutter. I mean, I expected him to be better, but not legit Top 15 starter better. It’s nuts.
Walker Buehler – 5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 0 BBs, 4 Ks. The good news: That line. The bad news: He had a sore rib and was pulled with 71 pitches. We don’t know the extent of the injury, but I’d wager he’s missing at least one start here. The more good news: If he hits the DL for, I don’t know, a month?, it means that Buehler could be pitching for your H2H playoffs – remember, he was going to be capped around 130-140 pitches anyway. Just something to consider here when your emotions are wild.
Michael Fulmer – 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 7 Ks. Well that’s a start. I won’t tell you that I expected Fulmer to dominate against the Indians, though I’m sure pleased with this, though I want a little more than 9 whiffs to justify the 7 Ks. Whatever, let’s take that 97mph heater and keep this going.
Lance Lynn – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 7 Ks. Now that’s 4 ER in his last four starts and you’re curious. Curious like if those jelly beans really have disgusting flavors. If you’re looking for a reason to not pursue this, I got you. It’s just a 20.8% K rate with a blegh 10.8% BB rate in that time, needing a .250 BABIP and 86.7% LOB Rate in that time, adding up to a terrible 4.38 SIERA – and that’s during his hot streak! Don’t do this.
Mike Montgomery – 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 BBs, 1 Ks. Monty has taken the reigns as Darvish has been on the DL and has given the Cubs a 1.02 ERA in three starts. Well now. A solid 11.7% whiff rate suggests better than the 15.2% K rate he’s earned as well, but this is a small sample of 17.2 IP. In the end, a season-long MM would equate to a debatable Toby – more like a decent streamer – and that’s cool. Be happy with that.
Chris Sale – 8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 10 Ks. Aces gonna ace as Sale earned himself a Gallows Pole – 23 whiffs – and 45 CSW in 109 pitches (41%). That’s straight dominance, with an amazing CSW against CWS, surprising no one.
Masahiro Tanaka – 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks. Tanaka was pulled with this one with a strained hamstring in his left…no right…no BOTH legs. You shouldn’t be shocked at the 8 Ks by now and his 14% whiff rate with a 1.09 WHIP should make you a happy owner, but, oh, right. Double hamstring injury. Life isn’t fair, you know? Keep him on your DL, don’t drop.
Jacob deGrom – 8.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks. Aces gonna ace. Of course he got the Loss, why you would think otherwise?
Wilmer Font – 2.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. I gotta say, I’m not too Font of this whole “opener” thing. No one to note after so we’re going to slide right past that joke.
Marco Gonzales – 7.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 3 Ks. We just can’t stop the Gonzales train and you best continue rolling with him until he hits the wall. Yes, I do think that way is coming, maybe not as harsh as a Vargas Rule, but it’s always a little weird when a guy has a 0.81 ERA over 5 starts with a 4.25 SIERA. Just a bit.
Frankie Montas – 7.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Montas got it done against the Royals, and now holds an IPS over 7.0 through three starts…which is kinda odd but at I’m not too shocked that the Royals struggled twice to get him out early as they hacked away at his two-seamer. I’m all for taking a flier on this – he’s a new Spice Girl – but hold a shorter leash than the others. Streaming Record: 35-23.
Garrett Richards – 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 3 BBs, 7 Ks. That WHIP is bad and feels bad, but 7 Ks with a 3.38 ERA…yeah I’ll take it, Richards. I wonder if he’ll be able to boast a 1.20 WHIP this year, though his 1.27 WHIP is super close to 1.25 and that’s fine. Just lower those walks man. You gots this.
Andrew Cashner – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. It’s a VVVPQS for Cashner as he pushes the boundaries of VV. Oh, don’t worry Nick, the real VV did that today. It was a VV bad day.
Zack Greinke – 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 5 Ks. Greinke gave us a Philly as he got pulled one out before the QS, coming close but no cigar. Also a terrible WHIP and just five Ks and I hate how Coors does things. I’m buying if someone’s selling FWIW.
Chad Kuhl – 5.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 Hits, 2 BBs, 6 Ks. Kuhl story, bro. I like the lack of walks and solid 6 Ks. I hate how he kills your ratios and needs to be dealt before we can put any stock in it. Wait. What if he was dealt to the Yankees…That actually makes a ton of sense as it also opens up a permanent spot for Nick Kingham once Nova returns and he’s clearly not getting in done for the Pirates. JUST A THOUGHT.
Eric Lauer – 5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 Hits, 7 BBs, 6 Ks. 13 baserunners in five frames is a standard EL. O. L. affair as you want nothing to do with this.
Stephen Strasburg – 2.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 0 BBs, 2 Ks. Strasburg left early with a tight shoulder, which apparently he’s been dealing with for a few starts. Well that’s wonderful. Expect a DL stint here as Paxton creeps into the Top 10 on Monday.
Justin Verlander – 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 Hits, 3 BBs, 9 Ks. Aces gonna PQS with 8 Ks. Yeah, I’m okay with it. I want more, y’all do too, but come on, 9 Ks!
Jhoulys Chacin – 6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 7 Ks. Alright, in unison now. Chacin will do well when Jhoulyst expect it. Tommy, you’re a bit flat, pick it up.
Brandon McCarthy – 4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. He was the reluctant Call Boy and it didn’t go well as the Dodgers are heating up like a Hot Pocket. But does that mean… Yep, you’re going to seriously regret the first moment when you embrace the Dodgers. It’ll burn more than you can possibly imagine. McCarthy should still be considered as a possible streamer through the year.
Andrew Suarez – 4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Blegh. I would love to put stock in Suarez, but he just isn’t bringing enough to the table. Like we made brownies, wings, and guac and he got plastic forks. WE DON’T NEED FORKS SUAREZ.
Luke Weaver – 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 Hits, 5 BBs, 3 Ks. Move on from Weaver as he just can’t get into a consistent groove start-to-start. It sucks, I really wanted to believe that he could find it – and maybe he still can! – but if there’s any sort of decent option on the wire, I think you’re fine doing that.
Doug Fister – 5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 2 Ks. Fister doing Fister things – Doing The Dougie – A Fistful of Fallers – You Doug a Deep Hole – Don’t make me go on, please.
Matt Harvey – 6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 Hits, 3 BBs, 5 Ks. Welp time to pack this one up, and by pack it up, I mean time to move from the living room back to the bedroom. That’s how much investment we made here.
German Marquez – 4.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 Hits, 1 BBs, 4 Ks. So I still think you can apply the Rocky Mountain Way with Marquez, but we need to reassess the Diamondback offense possibly.
Jake Junis – 5.1 IP, 6 ER, 10 Hits, 1 BBs, 5 Ks. Junis, no. Nooooo. Three HRs did him in as it just didn’t work against the A’s. That doesn’t mean it won’t work next time, but obviously your confidence wanes a little. Let’s see if he can rebound against…Houston? Ugh, that’s not cool at all.
Vince Velasquez – 3.2 IP, 10 ER, 9 Hits, 2 BBs, 4 Ks. The Brew Crew were all over Vasquez from the start, as VV hung plenty and got burned. We’ve been talking a lot about Velasquez’s recent success and we now have a very apparent floor to go with his ceiling. This isn’t to say that you should drop him – he’s simply a Cherry Bomb in the truest sense. It’s up to you if you want to take the gamble.
Today’s Streamer
Nick Kingham vs. Chicago Cubs – He’s owned in under 20% of leagues and I think his stuff is legit, even against the Cubs.
Tomorrow’s Streamer
Marco Estrada vs. Baltimore Orioles – I know, this is kinda stupid. The only options I have otherwise are Nick Tropeano against the Twins (meh) and Clayton Richard against the Marlins (blegh). I know it’s been tough for Estrada thus far, but he looked improved last time out and the Orioles have Chris Davis so…
Day After Tomorrow’s Streamer
Jordan Lyles vs. St. Louis Cardinals – Not much to choose from here, so why not, let’s take a chance that Lyles has a good curveball against the Cards.
Game of the Day
Carlos Rodon vs. David Price – While I don’t think Rodon is going make a massive splash, I’m curious how he looks against the Sawx, while Price should dominate.
