Welcome back to Week 14 of our Patience or Panic series, where we profile three struggling players and provide recommendations on how you should react to their poor performance. Last week, our cover boy was Nick Pivetta, and my co-author Griffey Geiss recommended that managers exercise patience with the Padres’ right-hander after a few rough June starts. Pivetta bounced back with a domination of the Nationals, fanning 10 over seven shutout innings. Two weeks ago, I covered Dustin May (Panic), Xander Bogaerts (Patience), and Matthew Liberatore (Patience). They all seem to be trending in the right direction based on my recommendations, so I hope that continues!
This week, the three players I cover have all been disappointing in their own ways. One is a starting pitcher typically considered a great source of volume, but the quality of his innings have eroded this year along with his swing-and-miss stuff. Another is a perennially high pick whose production has been meager all season long and even worse in recent weeks. The final player seemed to be breaking out early in the season and poised to return great value for managers, but he’s struggled so much as of late that he’s approaching drop territory in shallower formats. All stats are through the games of Monday, June 30.
Luis Castillo, SP, SEA
Last five starts (since 6/7): 0-2, 28 IP, 24 Ks, 4.82 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
2025: 4-5, 96.1 IP, 79 Ks, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP
As I did initially, you might glance at Luis Castillo’s season-long numbers and think “What’s so bad about that?” As it turns out, the above line puts Castillo just outside the top 100 starting pitchers in standard formats according to both the Fangraphs auction calculator and Razzball player rater. Some of that has to do with Seattle failing to score enough runs to give Castillo wins, but a WHIP close to 1.30 is a real detriment, and Castillo’s current strikeout rate (19.4%) is the lowest of his career by a wide margin.
The chart above paints the picture of a steadily regressing pitcher from 2023 to 2025. Castillo has continued to throw a bit slower while getting fewer whiffs and therefore fewer strikeouts. It’s caused his ratios, especially the WHIP, to climb up. The relatively stable BABIP shows that poor luck on balls in play isn’t the reason behind that. Castillo’s xFIP, and the entire suite of ERA estimators not depicted here, suggest that his ERA could be even higher if it weren’t for a solid strand rate (78.8%, 68th percentile). Castillo is a guy who’s been able to outperform his ERA estimators by a couple of tenths of a run over the course of his career, but the current discrepancy is not sustainable.
Verdict: Panic. Castillo’s stuff has deteriorated for the second consecutive year, and I just don’t see a category where he’ll be a net positive for your team going forward. The stuff downtick has put increased pressure on his command and control. The former is slightly above average (career 102 Location+), and the latter is average at best (career 8% walk rate). Overall, Castillo’s profile is that of an ERA stabilizer who offers some good volume and gets a nice bump in QS leagues; he’s averaged 18 per season since 2021 and already has 10 this year. While still useful, that’s disappointing for a guy whose ADP was just over 100. On the bright side, you should be able to pick your spots with Castillo because he’s been significantly better at home than on the road every season since joining Seattle. His ERA is at least half a run better in T-Mobile Park than away from it in each of the last three seasons.
Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL
Last 30 days: 108 PA, .198/.278/.250 (51 wRC+), 6 R, o HR, 6 HR, 2 SB
2025: 354 PA, .223/.297/.321 (74 wRC+), 36 R, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 7 SB
For the first five years of his career, Albies was correctly treated as an elite fantasy option at a weak position and a sure bet to rack up runs and RBI with a useful batting average and power-speed blend. Now, the wheels have completely fallen off, leaving us questioning his fantasy viability. Albies followed up a fantastic 2023 (660 PA, 96 R, 33 HR, 109 RBI, 13 SB, .280 AVG) with a disappointing 2024 (435 PA, 52 R, 10 HR, 53 RBI, 8 SB, .251 AVG) that was shortened by a broken wrist. Instead of reverting back to form in his age-28 season, Albies has completely tanked along with many other Atlanta hitters.
Albies’ numbers have only gotten worse over the past month, and that dovetails with what we see in his PL Process+ rolling chart. Albies’ swing decisions have improved slightly in recent weeks, but it’s come at the expense of contact ability, and the power’s been on a steady decline all season. Albies is currently on pace to post career worsts in the following metrics: barrel rate (3%, 10th percentile), ideal contact rate (31.2%, 9th percentile), flyball exit velocity (87.5 MPH, 25th percentile), xwOBA (.285, 16th percentile), and countless others. Albies has always been a guy who squeezes the most out of his mediocre power via pulled flyballs and a ton of contact, but he’s never impacted the ball this poorly. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn he’s been dealing with an undisclosed injury or if his wrist hasn’t fully healed.
Verdict: Panic. Other than some positive regression in the batting department, I don’t hold out much hope for Albies turning things around this season. It seems like he’s finally paying the price for an uber-aggressive approach at the plate. He’s not swinging and missing more than usual, but his contact quality is atrocious. It seems crazy to say, but I would consider dropping Albies in shallow leagues (10-team and shallower) where you have another viable 2B option. In 12-team and deeper leagues, I’m not sure he’s at that point yet because he still hits in the heart of a decent order everyday and provides a few homers and steals. But, I would take just about anything I can get for him in a trade if someone is looking to buy low. Scott Chu has Albies almost off of the Hitter List at this point, and I can’t really argue against it.
Jung Hoo Lee, OF, SFG
Last 30 days: 101 PA, .143/.277/.274 (62 wRC+), 14 R, 0 HR, 3 RBI, 1 SB
2025: 344 PA, .240/.311/.393 (99 wRC+), 46 R, 6 HR, 34 RBI, 6 SB
The report on Lee when he came over from South Korea in 2024 was that he was a solid centerfielder with a plus hit tool but solidly below-average power and the ability to steal double-digit bases. His rookie season stateside was unfortunately curtailed by a dislocated shoulder after just 37 games, so drafters this season didn’t have a lot of information at their disposal when it came to Lee. The lack of a sample size was part of the reason why it was so exciting when he posted an incredible March and April, slashing .319/.375/.526 with 23 runs, 3 HR, and 3 SB. Perhaps we shouldn’t have read too much into the power surge, as two of the three came in the same game in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. Nevertheless, it seemed like Lee had a good chance to be an elite source of batting average and runs.
While the runs have continued to come, everything else has gone away. Lee has actually walked more than he’s struck out in the last 30 days, so I think bad batted ball luck is mostly to blame. His .158 BABIP over this stretch is the worst of any qualified hitter. His rolling Process+ chart shows that the early power was indeed likely a fluke, with his recent power output being so poor that it’s completely offsetting his excellent contact skills and solid swing decisions.
Verdict: Panic…sort of. Sorry for all the negativity this week, guys! For Lee specifically, I don’t actually feel like this recent stretch is an indication that he’s now a below average hitter. It just made it clear that he doesn’t have the fantasy upside that he flashed earlier this season, which might be the reason why you were rostering him in the first place. As a guy who doesn’t provide a ton of power or speed, Lee’s fantasy utility is closely tied to his lineup context and spot. At this point, he’s consistently hitting 6th or 7th in a poor Giants lineup (94 wRC+, 7th worst in MLB) that plays in a pitcher-friendly home park. The acquisition of Rafael Devers helps, as will Matt Chapman’s impending return, but I don’t like Lee’s chances of returning to a lucrative lineup spot anytime soon. As a result, he’s an easy drop in 12-team leagues and shallower even though I expect his slash line at the end of the season to look better than it does now. I’d also consider cutting him in 15-teamers where there are only three starting outfield spots, but he’s not a bad bench option if you just need another body and don’t have specific categorical needs.
