We're continuing Bold Predictions week at Pitcher List after featuring Ben Palmer's and Ian Post's ten predictions thus far and it's time for me to get in the game. Some are silly, some are super bold, and others just make sense. Let's do it.
1. Rick Porcello will not receive a single Cy Young Vote
It was a fun 2016 for Porcello, who barely edged Justin Verlander to earn the Cy Young award and he had so much go his way to get it. First was his 7.6 Runs Per Game, which was nearly ten percent higher than any other starter in the majors, which led to him going deeper into games (think sticking it out for the seventh in a 5-2 game instead of a 3-2 game) and earning Wins that he didn't deserve. But it gets worse than that. Porcello held a 3.15 ERA with a poor 3.89 xFIP as he pitched in the AL Beast. He miraculously held a 9.3% HR/FB that should not stick around when called Fenway his home, especially when he allowed just 16.8% soft contact last season (14th worst in the majors among qualified pitchers) and 30.0% hard contact. What I see is a pitcher who gets 16 wins, holds a 3.40-3.50 ERA and doesn't strikeout enough players to outclass ten other pitchers in the AL in a baseball writer's view. Obviously predicting Porcello doesn't win the Cy Young again is far from a bold prediction, but let's go in the complete opposite direction, proclaiming Porcello will go from getting the most votes to tied for the fewest: None.
