Following an offseason trade to the Phillies, Jesús Luzardo was projected to begin the season in the bottom half of an elite rotation featuring the likes of Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sánchez, and Aaron Nola.
With prospect Andrew Painter also waiting in the wings, it seemed Luzardo was more of a temporary fix with solid potential than a fixture in such an impressive rotation.
The Phillies, however, did not see it this way, although I’d be shocked if anyone expected Luzardo to not only lead the rotation in fWAR but rank third in MLB through April 28th. This took some changes, although the talent has always been there for Luzardo.
Still, it will take quite a lot to sustain this success over the rest of the season. Looking at Luzardo’s 2024 season as well as his solid 2023 season could provide some clarity on what to expect as the 2025 season continues.
2023-2024
Following a 2023 season where Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA/3.55 FIP over 32 starts, 2024 was filled with injuries and disappointment. Posting a 5.00 ERA/4.26 FIP over just 12 starts, Luzardo’s strongest numbers plummeted, while his overall numbers paid the price.
While hit hard in both years, Luzardo’s formerly elite strikeout numbers fell to below average, likely due to an overall decline in his velocity and, thus, stuff.
With his outlier-low extension, Luzardo relied heavily on velocity to help his changeup/slider generate whiffs. While his fastball velocity fell closer to average, the efficiency of his secondaries was not enough to create solid results.
Hitters slugged .414 and .778 off his four-seam and sinker, respectively, while his secondaries’ 33.6 CSW% was not enough to complement his fastballs’ 25.1. Luzardo’s batted ball metrics have always been below average, yet they became closer to awful in 2024; a 9.9% barrel rate and 90.4 mph average exit velocity with just a 38.5% groundball rate will almost always lead to poor results.
While it’s possible to blame this all on injuries causing his stuff to falter, a few problems remained. While his fastball was consistently crushed, Luzardo’s slider wasn’t as successful in-zone anymore. As his only glove-side offering, another pitch was certainly an option – thankfully, it was an option the Phillies took and ran with.
2025
Entering 2025 healthy, Luzardo had a rocky Spring Training that did not bleed into the regular season. Featuring restored velocity, a new sweeper, and a slightly lowered arm slot, Luzardo has made some intentional changes that have worked out well so far.
While inconsistent shape-wise, Luzardo’s sweeper has made all the difference – it has an elite 41.7 CSW%, 5.43 PLV, and just a 7.1% barrel rate. Luzardo has also improved his sinker, his worst offering on a rate basis in 2024, adding a few inches of drop while creating impressive separation from his four-seam.
Along with his velocity returning to its 2023 levels, Luzardo has retained his solid command and bolstered his pitch arsenal to throw 5 different pitches over 10% of the time.
This has culminated in a 1.73 ERA/1.98 FIP through his first six starts, with his formerly elite swing-and-miss numbers returning to form:
Luzardo has also induced better contact, sitting around league average with an 89.1 mph average exit velocity, 6.4% barrel rate, and 44.7% groundball rate.
While not above average, these numbers sit closer to league average, allowing Luzardo’s elite swing-and-miss stuff to carry him to above-average results. Still, they will likely keep Luzardo from consistently preventing runs at such an elite clip.
Luzardo has run just a 4.5 HR/FB% through his first six starts, allowing just one home run despite still allowing a fair amount of hard-hit fly balls. While it’s reasonable to expect his home run rate to improve from his last few seasons, such a low HR/FB% is unsustainable over a full season.
Still, this regression is not a make-or-break factor in his overall results – Luzardo is still keeping runners off base and limiting contact better than ever. Luzardo still struggles with whiffs against righties and could certainly hit a rough patch here and there, like he did in early 2023, but there is solid reason to believe Luzardo has what it takes to return to form and boast an impressive season in 2025.
