Michael Hanlon (typically of the weekly Points League series) here, filling in for Ben for this week! I will be following the same format that you are used to seeing from this series, taking a look at three teams whose hitters have favorable matchups to take advantage of this week, as well as three teams whose hitters you may want to avoid. As always, there will also be one highlighted catcher to stream, to help with that ever-tricky position to maintain consistent production from in fantasy.
I would also like to note that PL Pro member LarryV, who is a former meteorologist at the National Weather Service, has been kind enough to lend his expertise to provide insights on which teams are likely to have the best/worst weather this week, so I’ll be including that where it’s relevant (and thanks Larry!).
Now, let’s take a look at the hitters to start and avoid in Week 17 (7/28-8/3) of the fantasy baseball season.
Ben’s Notes: All pitching matchups mentioned here are based on projections as of this post’s publication. It is entirely possible that the actual matchups could change for any number of reasons. Keep in mind, this article is geared toward middle-of-the-road players, meaning you should be starting top-of-the-line bats regardless of the matchup. Always start your studs.
START
Cleveland Guardians hitters – The Guardians begin the week with the luxury of welcoming the Colorado Rockies to town for a three-game series. Though they then close the week with a three-game set versus the Twins, whose staff owns the fifth-best FIP in the league, the Rockies series alone is worth targeting. Colorado is not only last in all meaningful pitching statistics across the league, as you probably already know, but they are so by shockingly wide margins.
The examples are endless, but the biggest one is in the opponents’ batting average. Every other pitching staff in the majors has held opponents to a batting average between .227 (the Texas Rangers staff, best in the league) and .266 (the Baltimore Orioles, second-worst in the league). The average against the Rockies pitching staff, though? A staggering .296. They are also massive outliers when it comes to team ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts.
All of this is to say that targeting the Rockies to stream hitters against has been a historically good opportunity week in and week out this season, and that shouldn’t stop this upcoming week. The Guardians have already shown recently that they know how to take advantage of poor pitching, putting up 40 runs in a six-game span against the Athletics and Orioles.
Mentioned last week in this series, both Kyle Manzardo (slashing .313/.368/.563 over the last seven days) and Angel Martínez (.400/.464/.640 in the same span) continue to swing hot bats and both deserve attention this week. Many of the Guardians’ other ancillary bats are hitting around the Mendoza line and can’t really be trusted even in good matchups, but you should get plenty of production out of both Manzardo and Martinez in the Rockies series alone to make a meaningful difference in your weekly matchup.
They will be facing Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon, and Kyle Freeland in that series, and while Freeland has a good game in him every once in a while, none of those pitchers are having particularly good seasons.
Toronto Blue Jays hitters – Blue Jays hitters getting to face Orioles pitching this week, fourth-worst in team FIP, is reason enough to make sure they’re in your lineup. A scheduled doubleheader on Tuesday is just icing on the cake.
Not many teams are playing a full seven-game schedule this week–there are only three Thursday games–so while the Blue Jays do have an off day on Thursday, they get the opportunity nonetheless for seven games of production. They will square off against Zach Eflin, Cade Povich, Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer in the Baltimore series, three of whom have an ERA over 5.00. The other, Kremer, sits at an uninspiring 4.23.
Addison Barger, Ernie Clement, and Nathan Lukes are all worth a look here. Barger especially can be a difference maker, hitting for both power and average with a .385/.429/.654 slash line over the last seven days with seven RBI. He has five home runs so far in the month of July after putting up the same number in June, suggesting he has found a consistent approach. Lukes is interesting as well, given that the Blue Jays have been leading him off ahead of their superstar trio, giving him lots of opportunities for runs.
The Blue Jays close the week out with a series against the Kansas City Royals, a much more stingy pitching staff whose team FIP ranks ninth-best in the bigs. Toronto is expected to see Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron in that series, and while they are all quality arms, none of these names scare me enough to shy away from the Jays hitters this week. The good news is that the Royals series will be at home in Rogers Centre, where the Blue Jays have been unstoppable of late. I wouldn’t be surprised if they overperformed in that series as well.
CATCHER TO STREAM: Alejandro Kirk remains available in about half of fantasy leagues and should be in for a big week. Not only is Kirk hitting .302 on the year, an excellent number for any player, let alone a catcher, but his xBA of .299 (96th percentile) suggests his numbers are as legit as any. Look for him to feast on Orioles pitching, especially on the doubleheader day when he is guaranteed to start one of those games.
Tampa Bay Rays hitters – Normally, a schedule that involves series against both the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers in the same week is not a reason to celebrate. The Tampa Bay hitters might just be looking forward to their opportunities this upcoming week, though, with both of the 2024 World Series participants struggling to put opponents away of late.
Tampa will open the week by travelling to the Bronx for a four-game set with their division rivals, where they’ll see Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Wil Warren and Marcus Stroman. Fried is obviously the best of that bunch, but even he has not been performing up to par lately and is not an automatic quality start right now. The other three are all young and/or middling arms who can’t be expected to go deep into their outings, leaving the Yankees’ floundering bullpen exposed.
In the Dodgers series, Tampa hitters will face off against Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May. Glasnow is obviously still an ace, but Kershaw has been a shell of his former self this season. Dustin May has been a total wildcard, shuffled in and out of the rotation with only flashes of being a consistently good pitcher, and his 4.73 ERA shouldn’t scare anyone away.
Jonathan Aranda, juggled in and out of many fantasy lineups this season, should be started wherever rostered this week, especially with that short porch in Yankee Stadium to aim at for four games. Chandler Simpson, available in 60% of Yahoo! leagues, could make for a very valuable stream. Slashing .349/.396/.422 over the last month, the rookie outfielder typically known for his elite speed has shown he can hold his own at the plate at the big-league level.
It should also be noted that Tampa Bay hitters will be playing in some of the best weather conditions this week of any team in the league, with all seven of their games expected to be played in warm/hot and humid weather– perfect for balls to take fight in.
AVOID
Washington Nationals hitters – Both of the series that the Nationals play this week see them going up against a tough, deep pitching staff. First, they’ll head to Houston and square off against the staff with the fourth-best team FIP in the league, and then they’ll welcome Milwaukee to a home series versus a staff that has the 12th-best team FIP in the league but has been gaining serious momentum of late.
Though the Nationals will avoid Hunter Brown, they start their week off against ace Framber Valdez, who sports a stingy 2.67 ERA that ranks 13th-best among all qualifying pitchers. They then manage to avoid Freddy Peralta in the Milwaukee series, but otherwise are projected to face a formidable trio of veterans in Nestor Cortes, Jose Quintana, and Brandon Woodruff. Cortes recently struck out nine in his final rehab start in AAA, and Woodruff has been nothing short of dominant since his recent return from injury.
Let the middle-of-the-road Washington hitters linger on the wire for this week.
San Diego Padres hitters – The only team with a formal ‘Bad’ designation for this week’s weather from our National Weather Service consultant, Larry, the Padres hitters will be playing six home games this week in relatively chilly San Diego. Compared to the hot and humid weather throughout most of the country, as we turn the calendar to August, San Diego stubbornly remains at around 72-73 degrees each day, with temperatures dropping into the mid-to-low 60s at night.
Pair that with the fact that the Padres’ uninspiring schedule this week contains two teams within the top-10 of team FIP, the New York Mets and the St. Louis Cardinals, and that gives you plenty of reason to avoid middle-of-the-road Padres hitters this week.
San Francisco Giants hitters – The Giants open the week with a three-game series at home in their expansive pitcher-friendly park against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates own the tenth-best team FIP in the league, and while Paul Skenes is responsible for a large part of that number, the rest of the rotation hasn’t been bad.
The Giants should avoid Skenes this series, but the trio they will face, Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter and Mike Burrows, have all put together solid campaigns thus far, and none are easy prey to target. Keller and Falter each have an ERA below 4.00, and Burrows is right around that line.
Giants hitters will end the week by facing a trio of tough pitchers in New York against the Mets–David Peterson, Kodai Senga, and Frankie Montas Jr. all have potential for shutdown performances. Montas was pretty poor in his first few starts coming off the IL, but has seemed to have found more of a rhythm of late, leaving no clear weaknesses in the Giants’ schedule.
It looks wise to avoid any non-essential Giants hitters this week.
