What’s up, everyone!
If you’re unfamiliar with this series, each week I take a look at some hitting matchups you should take advantage of and some hitting matchups you should avoid, based on who the hitters will likely be facing on the mound. I’ll also be focusing on catchers you can stream each week, since we all know that catchers can be an especially tricky position in fantasy.
Also wanted to note that PL Pro member LarryV, who is a former meteorologist at the National Weather Service, has been kind enough to lend his expertise to provide insights on which teams are likely to have the best/worst weather this week, so I’ll be including that where it’s relevant (and thanks Larry!).
Now, let’s take a look at the hitters to start and avoid in Week 16 (7/21-7/27) of the fantasy baseball season.
Notes: All pitching matchups mentioned here are based on projections as of this post’s publication. It is entirely possible that the actual matchups could change for any number of reasons. Keep in mind, this article is geared toward middle-of-the-road players, meaning you should be starting top-of-the-line bats regardless of the matchup. Always start your studs.
START
Colorado Rockies hitters – The Rockies have six games this week, kicking off with three games at home in Coors Field against the Cardinals. Now, the Cardinals generally have a pretty good pitching staff, but the fact the Rockies get to face them in Coors Field in what will be pretty good weather too makes this a series that’s hard to ignore.
In that series, the Rockies will see Erick Fedde, Matthew Liberatore, and Andre Pallante, which in Coors in hitter-friendly weather, honestly doesn’t concern me all that much.
After that, the Rockies will travel to Baltimore for three games against the Orioles, who currently own the fourth-worst team FIP in all of baseball. There, they’ll see Trevor Rogers and then most likely Tomoyuki Sugano and Brandon Young (depends on what the Orioles do, their rotation can be a bit fluid at times).
None of those three concern me and honestly even if it isn’t Sugano and Young after Rogers, there aren’t really any starters the Orioles can toss out there that I’d suddenly be frightened of (and I say this as an Orioles fan, their pitching is so bad).
Mickey Moniak was on a bit of a hot streak coming into the All-Star Break, slashing .400/.478/.750 over the past two weeks and .333/.379/.704 over the past month, and could be worth a look this week in deeper leagues. Jordan Beck could have some value this week as well, as he’s been hitting .280/.308/.480 over the past two weeks.
Cleveland Guardians hitters – The Guardians have a full seven-game week with some pretty favorable pitching matchups and some warm weather all across the board.
Remember how I was just talking about how bad the Orioles’ pitching is? Well the Guardians start their week off with four games against the Orioles where they’ll likely see Tomoyuki Sugano, Brandon Young, Charlie Morton, and Dean Kremer.
Again, the Orioles could swap someone in for Sugano and Young, but they’ll definitely have Morton and Kremer out there, and while Morton was pitching better than before coming into the All-Star Break, he also just got lit up by the Rays in his last start, so plenty of offensive potential against him.
After that, the Guardians will get three games against the Royals where they’ll see Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic, and most likely Noah Cameron. Bubic concerns me, and certainly Wacha can be a problem (though I’m less concerned about him), but overall given the seven-game week, there’s a lot to like about the Guardians’ offensive potential.
If you need some help in the power department, Kyle Manzardo is sporting a .237 ISO over the past month and could have some value. Similarly, Angel Martínez owns a .250 ISO over the past month. And in deeper leagues, Bryan Rocchio has been slashing .282/.317/.538 over the past month and could have some value.
Houston Astros hitters – The Astros have a full seven-game week this week, starting off with three games against the Diamondbacks who currently own the seventh-worst team FIP in all of baseball. There, they’ll see Zac Gallen, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Brandon Pfaadt, none of whom really worry me all that much.
After that, the Astros get four games against the Athletics, who currently own the worst team FIP in the league. There, they’ll see Luis Severino, Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez, and whoever they decide to slot in as their fifth between Lopez and JP Sears (or maybe it’ll be Sears). Honestly, doesn’t matter who it is, the A’s have the worst pitching staff in the league.
Isaac Paredes is slashing .286/.368/.488 over the past month and is definitely worth a start this week. And in deeper leagues, Mauricio Dubón is sporting a respectable .254/.286/.463 line over the past month (okay, maybe not so respectable in OBP leagues) and he’s got a ton of positional eligibility, so he could be helpful if you need him.
CATCHER TO STREAM: Assuming he’s catcher-eligible in your league (and I believe he should be), Victor Caratini is sporting a .258 ISO over the past month and is hitting in the middle of the Astros lineup, so if you need some help at the catcher position, he could have some value.
Minnesota Twins hitters – The Twins get six games this week, starting off with three games against the Dodgers who currently own the eighth-worst team FIP in the league. I’m not 100% sure who the Twins will face in that series, I’d imagine they’ll likely see Shohei Ohtani for a couple of innings, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto might slide in there as well, but given how unsteady the Dodgers’ pitching staff has been so far this year, I think it’ll still be a favorable matchup for your Twins hitters.
After that, the Twins get three games against the Nationals who currently own the sixth-worst team FIP in the league. There, they’ll see Mitchell Parker, MacKenzie Gore, and most likely Jake Irvin. Gore can be a problem, so maybe I’d avoid him in daily leagues, but otherwise I think you’re good to go here.
AVOID
Los Angeles Angels hitters – The Angels have seven games this week, which would normally make me excited for their hitters, but they’re slated to have some pretty tough matchups up ahead.
They start the week off with three games against the Mets, who currently own the seventh-best team FIP in the league right now. In that series, they’re likely to see Kodai Senga, Frankie Montas Jr., and Sean Manaea. Montas doesn’t concern me all that much, but Senga certainly does, and Manaea has looked pretty darn good.
After that, the Angels get four games against the Mariners where they’re likely to see Logan Evans, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and George Kirby, which is a pretty tough slate ahead.
All in all, it looks to be a pretty tough week for your Angels hitters and I’d likely be avoiding them if I can.
Atlanta hitters – Atlanta gets a six game week this week starting off with three games against the Giants, who currently own the second-best team FIP in the league. There, they’ll likely see Landon Roupp, Justin Verlander, and whoever else the Giants slide in as their fifth starter.
After that, Atlanta gets three games against the Rangers where they’re likely to face Kumar Rocker, Nathan Eovaldi, and probably Jacob deGrom, which is a tough slate.
Overall there are a couple matchups where you could probably be okay starting your Atlanta hitters, but in weekly leagues, I’d be avoiding if I can.
Toronto Blue Jays hitters – The Blue Jays have seven games this week, starting off with three games against the Yankees where they’re likely to face Carlos Rodón, potentially Cam Schlittler (injury pending), and Will Warren.
After that, they’ve got four games against the Tigers, who currently own the 11th-best team FIP in the league. There, the Jays are likely to see Keider Montero, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, and Jack Flaherty.
There are a few matchups that could work in daily leagues (namely Montero and Schlittler or whoever ends up in his place), but on the whole I’d probably be avoiding my middle-of-the-road Blue Jays hitters this week.
