Trout of the Park
Mike Trout (LAA): 2-6, HR, 2 R, RBI.
Chances are, if I had told you before the season began that Mike Trout would, for the first time since 2019, surpass 500 plate appearances, you probably would have been excited to draft him. He was the 30th outfielder off the boards in NFBC this year. But alas, we haven’t watched the Trout of yore, or anything close to it. The three-time AL MVP carried a .234 batting average and a 118 wRC+ into last night’s game against the Mariners; the latter is a career low, ignoring his rookie season.
Trout came one step closer to another milestone, grooving a 3-2 fastball from Bryce Miller for his 399th home run. Before last night, he hadn’t gone yard since August 6th, a drought that had surpassed his previous career-high of 117 plate appearances back in 2015. He also notched another hat trick in last night’s extra-inning loss to the Mariners, and that’s been an unexpected part of the Trout experience this season, with his 30.8% strikeout rate being a career-high. His 1.5 fWAR is the lowest he has posted in any season during which he has played 100 games or more, the second lowest being the 6.0 he posted three years ago.
Like any true competitor, Trout believes he can be an MVP-caliber player again. The Angels, meanwhile, have apparently expressed doubts. Maybe he is playing the last season of his career in an Angels uniform. Or maybe not. Either way, Trout has reached a crossroad. Whereas before we could point to his stints on the IL, now the specter of decline seems palpable. Who knows? Maybe Trout can return to prominence next season. On that note, his 122 Power+ and 128 DV+ provide a glimmer of hope. But perhaps all the injuries have finally taken their toll. It was before my time, but as someone who grew up as a Yankee fan, I’m reminded of watching the old highlight of a badly limping Mickey Mantle rounding the bases on his 500th home run while playing on a team near the bottom of the standings. The Commerce Comet was reduced to a shell of his former glory. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m starting to think that the Millville Meteor might be following a similar trajectory.
Let’s see how the other hitters did Thursday:
Chandler Simpson (TBR): 4-4, R, SB.
All singles for Simpson, who entered yesterday’s series finale against the Pale Hose, hitting .284 with an 80 wRC+. He might as well swing a garden hose (.663 OPS and 75 Power+), and I kinda wish he walked a little more, but, really, who cares? Simpson’s 10% strikeout rate and blinding speed make him a game-changer, especially since becoming the Rays’ de facto leadoff man in mid-August.
Daulton Varsho (TOR): 2-4, 3B, R, RBI.
Varsho led off the fourth by swatting a 1-0 changeup on the low outside corner from Cristian Javier to the base of the wall in right-center; neither Mauricio Dubón nor Jesús Sánchez could get to it quickly, allowing the Jays’ center fielder to claim his second triple of the year. Varsho has quietly matched last year’s 18 home runs in not even half as many plate appearances (220 vs. 513). Sure enough, he is swinging with authority (127 Power+), but also whiffing at a career-high 28.7% (80 Contact Ability+). Swing hard, in case you hit it. And, yeah, his 29.2% pulled-air rate will keep his average low.
Jackson Holliday (BAL): 2-4, R, SB.
Holliday entered yesterday’s matinee hitting .250 with a 101 wRC+. That’s not too bad as a 21-year-old in his first full season. Still, it might be a touch underwhelming with all the expectations that come with being the first overall pick. Anyways, his PLV metrics support some pretty decent growth, including a 101 Power+ (94 last season), a 99 Contact Ability + (80 last season), and a 109 DV+ (99 last season). I don’t think you have to squint too hard to see post-hype appeal for next year.
Vinnie Pasquantino (KCR): 1-3, HR, R, 2 RBI, BB.
Gavin Williams had Vinnie in a 0-2 count in his first at-bat, but tossed a four-seamer that he probably wanted a little higher. Regardless, that’s 30 for the Pasquatch, dwarfing last year’s 19. His Power+ has climbed from 97 to 104 this year. He has lost a little Contact Ability (128 to 120), but, yeah, I doubt anyone is complaining. He entered last night’s game, hitting .262 with a 112 wRC+, just about mirroring last year’s .262 and 109.
Aaron Judge (NYY): 3-4, 2 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, HBP.
Judge opened the scoring with his 45th tater, a solo shot off righty opener Tyler Horton (413 feet, 110.1 EV). Sawyer Gipson-Long didn’t fare any better, surrendering Judge’s 46th on a 1-0 four-seamer with the bases empty in the third (433 feet, 114.9 EV). The second home run was the 361st of his career, tying him with Joe DiMaggio for fourth in Yankee history (361). Their respective eras were so completely different that it’s essentially comparing apples to oranges. I get it. Still, the fact that Judge has tied the Yankee Clipper in 2,747 fewer plate appearances is almost unfathomable. The reigning AL MVP is hitting .322 and leads baseball with a 191 wRC+ (Ohtani is second at 170).
Otto Kemp (PHI): 2-4, 2B, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI.
Kemp got the Phillies on the board by drilling his sixth home run of the season on a slider from David Peterson (432 feet, 107.1 EV). The 26-year-old righty entered the night, hitting .234 with a 90 wRC+ over 173 PAs. Kemp is serving as the fill-in for Alec Bohm (shoulder) and has shown decent power and speed in the minors, but his 30.6% strikeout rate is a little bit of a red flag. Still, he should at least be on the radar, given that he is in a lineup with plenty of opportunities for counting stats.
CJ Kayfus (CLE): 1-3, HR, R, 2 RBI.
The Guardians’ fourth-ranked prospect via Pipeline, Kayfus, has had a rough first go-around; he entered last night’s game, hitting .196 with a 75 wRC+ across 103 plate appearances. However, he socked what proved to be the game-winner last night, tagging John Schreiber for a go-ahead two-run home run in the eighth (424 feet, 106.6 EV). Kayfus posted an impressive 134 wRC+ across 289 plate appearances with Triple-A Columbus before the promotion. But, yeah, he is just a name to file away for deep leagues next year.
Jackson Merrill (SDP): 1-3, HR, R, RBI.
Merrill’s 11th was an oppo shot off Rockies right-hander McCade Brown, which gave the Pads a 2-0 lead in the fourth (365 feet, 101.4 EV). Merrill, oh dear. What could have been? Sure, he has hit the IL two times with a hamstring strain, but still, you can’t sugarcoat it. He has been one of the biggest disappointments of the fantasy season, his .259 average and 106 wRC+ paling to last year’s .292 and 130. Merrill’s PLV scores are a little bit of a mixed bag. The 118 Power+ is great! But his swing decisions (79 DV+) certainly didn’t help his cause.
Dillon Dingler (DET): 2-4, HR, R, 2 RBI.
Dingler got just enough of a changeup from the Fratty Pirate for his 13th of the year (377 feet, 109 EV). He has been a hero for those in two-catcher leagues. His .282 batting average would rank second behind only Alejandro Kirk’s .289 among qualified backstops. His .298 xBA (97th percentile) indicates it’s not just good fortune, either.
Yoán Moncada (LAA): 2-3, 2B, R.
Injuries have limited Moncada to just 74 games. However, he has been reasonably productive, hitting .245 with 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+. The strikeouts aren’t great (25.3%), but he’s making pretty decent swing decisions (110 DV+) and has shown some thump (107 Power+). He hits second or third most nights against RHP and could help you out if you’re in a deep league and hurting at CI.
Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire | Featured image by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X) and adapted by Justin Paradis (@JustParaDesigns on Twitter/X; @justinparadis.bsky.social on BlueSky)
