Welcome back to our Expected SP Schedules series!
Throughout the season, the Expected SP Schedules article will provide insight regarding each starting pitcher’s upcoming matchups. Who has a two-start week? Who is facing a favorable lineup? Who is struggling but might be due for a turnaround? Among other content at Pitcher List, this article is meant to help guide fantasy baseball managers through the handling of their rotations. Today’s title is a shoutout to the imminent return of Tyler Glasnow, who is slated to return to the major league mound this week after missing more than two months with a shoulder issue. The Dodgers rotation could sure use him, not that their litany of pitching injuries has prevented them from having one of the best records in baseball.
With the All-Star break coming up after this week, the tables will be a little more compact than usual, only mapping out this week’s games. This is because teams often shuffle their rotations after the hiatus, so I don’t want to speculate about the post-break ordering. The games listed in each chart start with the games of Monday, July 7 despite the Tuesday publication date so that the chart coincides with the start of the week.
Remember the handy glossary for this article:
- (OFF) means the team has an off-day before they play that team.
- (DH) indicates a doubleheader that day.
- ??? represents an unclear rotational spot, and the notes will explain the options.
And finally, let’s look at our PLV-based offensive rankings, which incorporate our Process+ metric to project future offensive performance. These rankings, which are in alphabetical order by tier and were last updated on June 30, continue to reflect the offensive skills that teams have showed lately rather than over the course of the entire season. The biggest fallers are the Twins (“Top” to “Average”), White Sox (“Average” to “Poor”), and their current tiers make more sense to me than their ranks before this most recent update. In terms of wRC+, the Twins grade out as an average offense recently and in the last 30 days, while the White Sox are in the bottom five regardless of how you slice it.
Rising back into the top tier are the Diamondbacks, whose lineup had some small losses lately in Pavin Smith and Gabriel Moreno but one huge return in Corbin Carroll. The Phillies, who are the only team to jump two tiers, also join them. They welcomed back Bryce Harper from a nagging injury last week, and I will be watching Harper closely to see if his production suffers at all from the ailment.
AL East
Orioles’ Expected Starters
- With Zach Eflin and Cade Povich out, this is Baltimore’s starting five. It’s not pretty, but Charlie Morton and Trevor Rogers have been in nice grooves lately. In eight starts since June 13, the duo have covered 43.2 IP with a 46:12 K:BB ratio and a 2.27 ERA. Because of the matchups, only Rogers is a stream this week. Miami is an offense on the rise, but they remain poor against lefties (85 wRC+ this season).
Red Sox Expected Starters
- My conjecture is that the Red Sox will roll with a six-man rotation this week after Hunter Dobbins worked up to five innings and 62 pitches in a Double-A rehab start on Saturday. This would leave only Richard Fitts with a nice two-step that I like in 12-team wins leagues and deeper. Walker Buehler (72 IP, 6.25 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 8.8% K-BB%) has been atrocious and is in serious jeopardy of losing his rotation spot.
Yankees’ Expected Starters
- The Bronx Bombers suffered a devastating blow this week when Clarke Schmidt (78.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 13.6% K-BB%) was diagnosed with a UCL tear. He’ll miss all of this season and potentially all of 2026 as well. To fill the vacancy, New York will be promoting Cameron Schlittler for his MLB debut. Read more about Schlittler, who ranked 5th in our most recent pitching edition of the Stash List, here.
Rays’ Expected Starters
- A rotation shakeup could be on the horizon in Tampa, where Zack Littell (110.2 IP, 3.50 ERA, 13.9% K-BB%) is on the trade block, and Drew Rasmussen (89.1 IP, 2.82 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 15.9% K-BB%) is being treated as a glorified opener for Joe Boyle. Rasmussen is under club control through 2027 and has had two Tommy Johns and an internal brace procedure, so the caution is understandable. He threw under 100 total innings between 2023 and 2024. A Littell trade could open up a rotation spot for Boyle, who was excellent in AAA. As for this week, Shane Baz and Ryan Pepiot should both be started for their two-steps.
Blue Jays’ Expected Starters
- The red-hot Blue Jays get a relatively soft schedule this week, though managers should be aware of the hitter-friendly weather conditions in Sacramento. Eric Lauer (51 IP, 2.65 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 17.7% K-BB%) is a good streamer in deeper wins leagues.
AL Central
White Sox Expected Starters
- Jonathan Cannon has returned from the IL to fortify this week rotation. Adrian Houser (50.2 IP, 1.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 10.5% K-BB%) remains on a great run, but I can’t trust him this week against Toronto. As for Shane Smith (83.2 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10.7% K-BB%), he has steadily regressed and can probably now be dropped in basically all mixed wins leagues because his chances of returning a win or quality start are low.
Guardians’ Expected Starters
- Joey Cantillo is the replacement for Luis L. Ortiz, who will be on administrative leave for an indeterminate amount of time because of a gambling-related investigation. I would only take the plunge on Cantillo in deep wins leagues, as he’s not fully built up. Logan Allen is a good streamer against the White Sox in all formats. His 4.07 ERA and 1.43 WHIP for the season aren’t appealing, but he’s got a 3.41 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 29:11 K:BB ratio in his last five outings. Cleveland also has a great schedule after the break, with 10 home games against the A’s, Orioles, and Rockies in addition to a road series in KC.
Tigers’ Expected Starters
- Keider Montero was called up Monday to face Tampa Bay, but I’m projecting that as a spot start with Jack Flaherty (89.1 IP, 4.84 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 19.3% K-BB%) slated to go on Tuesday and Sunday. Despite the ugly ratios, Flaherty is just about an all-formats play because of the strikeout and win upside. Montero could stick after the break as the fifth starter due to an injury to Sawyer Gipson-Long.
Royals’ Expected Starters
- No changes to this rotation, which got an unexpected gem from Michael Lorenzen (7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks) on Sunday. Michael Wacha continues to regress, having allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts (15 innings) and 18 in his last five (26.1 IP). I would not start him in most formats against the Mets. As for Noah Cameron, I think you lock in the two-step and hope he survives or has his turn skipped on Sunday.
Twins’ Expected Starters
- If you hadn’t heard of Travis Adams until just now, you are not alone. This once-loaded Twins rotation is now severely depleted, with Bailey Ober joining Pablo López and Zebby Matthews on the IL. The time off might be good for Ober, who was pitching through a hip issue and struggled mightily in June (27 ER in 29 IP). He’s slated to return soon after the break, so I would stash him but not start him right away. I am not going with this two-start from Simeon Woods Richardson (63.1 IP, 4.41 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 11.4% K-BB%) because the Cubs are intimidating and he lacks upside.
AL West
Astros’ Expected Starters
- Houston appears poised to continue with the six-man rotation this week, and each starter would get a wonderful matchup to hopefully carry some confidence into the break. I would feel comfortable starting all of these arms except Ryan Gusto, who has struggled overall but especially as a starter (56.2 IP, 4.92 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 16.1% K-BB%).
Angels’ Expected Starters
- There are no changes to this rotation. I would try to stay away from these two-starts in 12-team formats and shallower because of the WHIP risk both pitchers pose, but I recognize that Kikuchi has been too good lately to sit. In his last five starts (32.2 IP), he’s only allowed seven earned runs with a 43:6 K:BB.
Athletics‘ Expected Starters
- This rotation remains one of the weakest in baseball, and I can’t recommend any of these starts. Jacob Lopez regressed last week after a strong stretch, allowed seven earned runs across 7.2 IP in his two starts.
Mariners’ Expected Starters
- Just like the A’s, Seattle has a tough run-in to the break. Unlike the A’s, their rotation is rock solid. I am starting all of these with the exception of Logan Evans (45.2 IP, 2.96 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 10.5% K-BB%) in the Bronx. Don’t let the ERA deceive you; this is not a risk worth taking. Bryce Miller continues to work his way back and may begin a rehab assignment soon.
Rangers’ Expected Starters
- While not an easy schedule this week for the middling Rangers, they should get two-steps from their best two arms. Because we’ve seen some improvement from Kumar Rocker lately (6 ER in last 21.2 IP with a 20:7 K:BB ratio), I would feel comfortable streaming him against the Angels. However, it wouldn’t be my first choice.
NL East
Atlanta Expected Starters
- The hits just keep coming in Atlanta, as a 1-5 week was made even worse by the news of a Spencer Schwellenbach elbow fracture. He may return this season, but it will likely be too late to resuscitate the team’s playoff hopes. It’s not immediately clear who will replace him in the rotation, as the team went with a combination of Aaron Bummer and Dylan Dodd this weekend. Hurston Waldrep is a candidate, but he hasn’t been good in AAA (7.32 IP, 5.25 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 8.6% K-BB%). On the bright side, he has allowed only seven earned runs across his last four starts (22.2 IP), but he’s still walked 11.
Marlins’ Expected Starters
- The two-start this week from Janson Junk is tempting because of his elite K:BB ratio (16.5 entering his start Monday!) but dangerous because, well, it’s Janson Junk with two road starts in difficult venues. I am staying away. Eury Pérez (22 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 10.8% K-BB%) is a start except in super shallow leagues, as he looked great last time out against Minnesota (6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 7 Ks).
Mets’ Expected Starters
- The Mets rotation is an absolute mess right now because of injuries to Paul Blackburn, Griffin Canning, and Tylor Megill. Fortunately for them, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea are on the comeback trail, with both tentatively slated to start this weekend. Another positive is that they get the Reds at home in their first post-break series.
Phillies’ Expected Starters
- Unlike several of their division counterparts, this rotation continues to fire on all cylinders. All of these arms are must starts besides Taijuan Walker, who is a must sit. I know Jesús Luzardo (97.1 IP, 4.44 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 18.9% K-BB%), has been bad, but if you don’t start him in San Francisco, when will you? I’m still a believer long-term.
Nationals’ Expected Starters
- QS darling Jake Irvin (105 IP, 4.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 9.4% K-BB%) gets a palatable two-step this week that I would consider in deeper leagues. Shinnosuke Ogasawara is up for an injured Trevor Williams, but like Williams, he can stay off your fantasy radar.
NL Central
Cubs’ Expected Starters
- The surprisingly effective Chris Flexen (32.2 IP, 0.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 7.4% K-BB%) is the replacement for an injured Jameson Taillon, who will be out at least the rest of the month with a calf injury. If he continues to work as a follower, there could be some nice win opportunities, but it won’t be this week against the Yankees. Only consider him in very deep leagues, as a .189 BABIP and 95.2% LOB% simply cannot last.
Reds’ Expected Starters
- This is a tantalizing seven-game week for the Reds, with the only concern being that both series take place in Great American Ball Park. I am starting the Brady Singer and Nick Martinez two-steps in 12-teamers and deeper with just a touch of trepidation. And of course, the other three arms are must starts, with two lefties against the Marlins and Chase Burns getting Rockie Road.
Brewers’ Expected Starters
- Welcome back, Brandon Woodruff! After fanning eight in six innings of one-run ball on Sunday in his season debut, he’s a must start in a weak matchup such as this one. I hate to be a killjoy, but I’m probably sitting Jacob Misiorowski (19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 14.7% K-BB%) against the Dodgers in any league where I care about ratios, especially WHIP. C’mon, he’s got a 13.3% walk rate and .122 BABIP!
Pirates’ Expected Starters
- Not much to see here besides continued domination from Paul Skenes (116 IP, 1.94 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 21.2% K-BB%) with no wins to show for it. Mitch Keller and Bailey Falter are good streams against KC, with Keller the far better but also more highly rostered option.
Cardinals’ Expected Starters
- For those who like to live dangerously, I present to you this Andre Pallante (94.1 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8% K-BB%) two-step. The strikeout upside isn’t there, but the wins and quality starts could be. Also, please drop Erick Fedde if you haven’t already. His 2.9% K-BB% is second-worst among all qualified starters.
NL West
Diamondbacks’ Expected Starters
- Lots of tough start-sit decisions this week for the Snakes. I am rolling with Merrill Kelly in 12-teamers and deeper but Zac Gallen only in 15-teamers and deeper. Imagine saying that at the beginning of the season. Among the one-start pitchers, I only trust Ryne Nelson (74.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 14.6% K-BB%), who broke out last week with three earned runs and 12 strikeouts in 13.2 IP. He attacks hitters with an elite fastball (62% usage, 5.37 PLV).
Rockies’ Expected Starters
- After optioning Chase Dollander, I anticipate the Rockies only using four starters to cover their six games this week, but does it really matter?
Dodgers’ Expected Starters
- On the other end of the spectrum are the Dodgers, who would probably use an eight-man rotation if there were fewer restrictions on roster size. Ben Casparius is back to the bullpen after allowing six earned runs in each of his last two starts, and Tyler Glasnow will replace him. I was bummed to see that Justin Wrobleski (40 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 18.1% K-BB%) was optioned, so I guess someone new will be the follower for Shohei Ohtani. Emmet Sheehan is also back and a nice target in wins leagues.
Padres’ Expected Starters
- Yu Darvish makes his season debut this week, but I am scared to plug him in with this two-step! On the other hand, Nick Pivetta (97 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 21.6% K-BB%) is a must start in the same matchups. If he can make it through this week relatively unscathed, he will be well on his way to a first career season with an ERA below 4.00.
Giants’ Expected Starters
- Like the Padres, this week could be a tough one in San Francisco. The only tough sit-start decision is Landen Roupp, as Logan Webb (120.1 IP, 2.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 21.7% K-BB%) and Robbie Ray (107.1 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 18.1% K-BB%) are matchup-proof in my eyes unless your staff is absolutely loaded. I would bench Roupp in 12-teamers and maybe even 15-teamers because of the WHIP risk and low win chance.
