Welcome back to Buy & Sell – All Star Break edition! In other words, here’s one for the people addicted enough to still be craving fantasy content even when there’s no games on and we’re supposed to be taking a break for our sanity’s sake! Who really is that lost in the fantasy sauce? [BEN sheepishly raises his hand]. This one goes out to the fantasy blind spots, the players who have been performing well but I ignored, either because I didn’t believe them or just fell through the cracks. Let’s go!
BUY
10-team
Ceddanne Rafaela (SS/OF, Boston Red Sox)
He was a player who I was down on in the preseason, but he’s made such a sharp turn that I call him. Mercedes-Benz… because he’s a luxury Ceddanne. He’s significantly improved every asset of his game to a degree that is rarely seen in the game, simultaenously improving his K% from 26% to 19%, hitting the ball MUCH harder (from 8% Barrel and 37% HardHit% in 2024 to 13% Barrel% and 48% HardHit%). And I believe that power, since his MaxEV jumped up a whopping 4 MPH from a mediocre 108 mph to a plus 112 mph. Nice.
Not only that, it seems he just gets better as the season progresses, with a .377 xwOBA over his past 100 PA being among the biggest improvers in the the league, and now it’s up to .418 over his last 50 PA. The surface stats show it too, as he’s hitting a blistering .421 with 5 HR, 15 RBI and 2 SB in 38 AB the past two weeks. He’s just 24 and while he may not quite be Mookie Betts making the star turn, he’s at least cementing him as a cornerstone for the Red Sox (thanks more to his phenomenal defense). His one weakness is in OBP formats, as he’s improved his walk rate but merely from disastrous to quite bad. But no one is complaining when he’s performing like this. He’s a must-start in all leagues at this point.
Honorable Mention: Kyle Stowers (OF, Miami Marlins) – He’s struggled before, but I’m always more encouraged when the league gets the book on a hitter and he rebounds to start a new chapter. Oh, and platoons be danged, you want the guy who went 5-for-5 with 3 homers.
Honorable Mention: Tyler Soderstrom (1B/OF, Oakland Athletics) – I’ve heard multiple baseball podcasts call him a drop, but they must’ve tuned out to the fact he got his mojko back hitting .381 with 3 homers in 21 AB this week. With his elite run production, scoop him now while everyone’s still ogling his teammate Nick Kurtz while ignoring they have perfectly good Nick Kurtz at home.
12-team
Geraldo Perdomo (SS, Arizona Diamondbacks)
I love a good thriller, but I never expected The Road to Perdition, to lead me to Perdomo. Must have made a wrong turn somewhere. For once, Perdomo is actually more intriguing in the underlying stats than the surface production, since he’s hit .288/.434/.424 with 2 HR and 2 SB in 66 AB over the past 3 weeks and just .222/.417/.500 with 1 homer over the past week, which at least may underwhelm if you focus on the first number in those splits instead of the second. Replace the AVG with OBP and look again.
Granted, Perdomo’s always been a pretty good OBP guy, with a career rate of 11% before this season. But it makes a difference that it’s now at 14% BB%, especially since his K% is down to a career-best 12% (17% career). I mean, what matters even more is that for that for once he actually has decent Hard Contact metrics with an 88 mph eV and 33% HardHit% and 6% Barrel%. In any case, he’s a must-own in OBP formats, as the high walk rate has made him the biggest xwOBA gainer in baseball over the past 100 PA, with a .442 xwOBA jumping up from his previously poor .269 mark. In a lineup like Arizona’s, getting on base that often leads to good things. He could be similar to near-peak Marcus Semien with a bettter walk rate (no not the 40 homer version).
Zach McKinstry (2B/3B/SS/OF, Detroit Tigers)
He’s one of those players who has been on the wire at various points across my leagues, and I just refused to roster after he made me look bad, REALLY BAD, when a previous strong first half led me to write an article speculating that he may be breaking out to be a fantasy stud. And now here he is, hitting .240/410/679 with 4 homers and 7 SB in 53 AB over the past 3 weeks, which essentially doubles his season power/speed totals to 8 homers and 15 SB. Hey, that looks pretty good! Ugh. Well, I gotta give the Tigers credit for sticking with him through his horrendous 2024 season.
I will throw a wet towel on this by saying a lot of it, mostly the power, I don’t think is believeable. He plays half his games in a pitcher’s haven, and his bat speed and quality of contact is among the worst among regulars in the league. And unlike the likes of Perdomo, his strikeout rate is actually a tad below league average, and he’s mostly landed into this by hitting balls at ideal angles with a 44% LA SweetSpot%, which despite the name, is not so sticky. But he can draw walks, and if you need stolen bases, he offers a higher floor than other rabbits, especially with his extra handy multi-position (nearly every position) eligibility that can help if you’ve been hit with the injuries to Austin Riley, Brandon Lowe, or you just have a small bench.
Honorable Mention: Jorge Polanco (2B/3B, Seattle Mariners) – He’s hit .316 with 3 homers this week, and he’s also hit the 5-game eligibility threshold for 3B. I’ve had him as a buy-low for over a month, as his .294 xBA looks legit, backed by a career-best 14% K% and 46% HardHit%. Thanks to the summer narrative about his injury and major slump, he’s suddenly underrated, and could go beast mode again.
Honorable Mention: Royce Lewis (3B, Minnesota Twins) – He’s been sitting untouched on some of my 12-team wires, but his expected stats are on an uptrend with hi s entire Statcast page a hue of red (nothing elite, but above average everywhere). If you wait ’til the big breakout game, someone else will get him first, but with his much-improved 14% K%, I see a breakout coming, IF healthy (Big if).
15-team
Dominic Canzone (OF, Seattle Mariners)
If you missed out on Big Dumper, you can at least settle for Big Canz. Is that pun going to get me in trouble with Nick? Probably, but worth it. I mean, Nick, I meant TRASH CANZ, like with the dump theme… duh! In my 14-team league, I added Dom when he was just 4% rostered. Then he had two amazing weeks, in which he hit .433 with a homer in 30 AB, raising his season line to .319/.340/.564 with 6 home runs and 1 SB in just 94 AB. This raised his roster rate to a whopping… 6%. Everyone’s still sleeping on a player who has displayed massive power and a more refined approach who just keeps hitting. Granted, over the past three weeks, incredibly, despite 18 hits, including a homer and 3 doubles, he has scored only 4 runs and 3 RBI. That’s like, the bare minimum possible! Give the man some lineup protection, Seattle!
I know he won’t maintain this BABIP, and the strikeout rate should regress (5 Ks in this week is inching up), but I think after what he’s displayed at the MLB level, plus the fact that a 27-year-old doesn’t benefit from a demotion. A lot of the intriguing things in his profile are similar to what I saw from Kyle Stowers before his breakout and shrugged at, and I’d rather not make that mistake twice. Just know he’ll sit against lefties, at least for now, though he’s hit .333 against lefties with just 2 K in 12 PA, so I’m hoping the M’s give him more chances on that.
Honorable Mention: Mickey Moniak (OF, Colorado Rockies) – He’s been heating up, and we’ve seen he can get crazy hot, with a week-long Coors homestand. Especially with Doyle being relegated to a part-timer, he should rack up at-bats and be useful in all 15-teamers and a viable stream in 12-team AVG leagues.
Deep Leagues
Will Benson (OF, Cincinnati Reds)
I get that he’s been hard to roster, and if you’ve held on Benson has been burning you. It’s true that his 50 PA xwOBA has been down to .331, but I see that as normal fluctuation as it’s a healthier .361 xwOBA over his past 100 PA (which I consider more reliable). Despite his poor .223 AVG and a merely decent 8 homers in 174 PA (157 AB), he has an excellent .282 xBA and .538 xSLG fueled by an elite 16% Barrel% that seems sustainable, with a passable 29% K%. I hate to make the comp twice, but he looks a lot like an unlucky version of Kyle Stowers, but also one with 92nd percentile sprint speed and one of the best home parks for power. He’s a must-roster in NL-only but I’d consider him as an early spec in deeper 15-team formats.
Honorable Mention: Angel Martinez (2B/OF, Cleveland Guardians) – I guess I was too dismissive of him and his awful Statcast metrics, as he simply seems unkillable and has 2 homers and a stolen base this week, and he just stays in the lineup. It won’t be pretty, but he can end the season with a solid .240 15/10 line that is useful deep league oatmeal.
SELL
10-team
Nico Hoerner (2B, Chicago Cubs)
Little Nico Hoerner sat in his corner, his season line is humble pie. Three weeks with one stolen base and bad average, he laughs as your trophy hopes die. I get that his run production opportunities on the Cubs are pretty great just for being on the Cubs, and 2B has been a wasteland, especially now with Brandon Lowe down, so I’m not necessarily saying he’s a straight drop. But I think he’s one of those guys where the name value is worth more than his projected value. And it is trade season.
If you want to accentuate the positive, he has hit two homers over the past three weeks (both three weeks ago), increasing his previous homer total by 200%. But even so, he’s hitting just .230 over that span, and .225 over the past two weeks, and he’s just not running much now. That could change, but I wonder if, as a team in good playoff position wanting to keep a player with a recent shoulder injury healthy, that they’re trying to cut down on all the headfirst slides. As far as the hitting, it’s probably a good thing that he has a career-best 7% K%, but I wonder if he’s falling into the Luis Arraez trap, as his 105 MaxEV is a huge drop from his 110 mph MaxEV last year, and his .300 xwOBACON of .300 is a career-worst and bottom 6% in the MLB. You’d likely be better off with a less powerless player who offered a better balance like Otto Lopez, unless you really need to sell out for AVG and SB.
Tommy Edman (2B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers)
Since he came back from the IL, his bat has been barely breathing, or moving, even though it’s still alive. In swim class, that’s called the Edman’s float. He’s hit just .106 with no homers or stolen bases and just 1 RBI in 47 AB over the past 3 weeks, and somehow even worse lately with a complete goose egg, a Triple-0 slash line, in 18 AB this week. Now, I won’t go full panic mode, as he has had some bad luck as a factor. But given that he’s not running this year with just 3 total SB, and the April power surge always seemed suspicious, I think you’ll do more harm than good holding on for now.
12-team
Brenton Doyle (OF, Colorado Rockies)
Every year, there are players whose peripherals indicate a turnaround, and those who are patient enough to weather the bad times get rewarded. But there are also some players whose great peripherals simply get worse, or they run out of time to prove their worth. Doyle is in the latter group. It’s a huge disappointment for one of the breakout stars of 2024, and it’s entirely possible, even probable, that he’s been affected by the tragedy he’s endured off the field. I still have optimism he’ll bounce back in 2025. But I think holding at this point is like expecting GameStop to hit $300 again. If Moniak is still on your wire, he will likely be an upgrade in the near-term.
Wilyer Abreu (OF, Boston Red Sox)
What seemed like a possible star breakout is more and more looking like a case of He Is Who He Thought He Was (although maybe slightly better?) He still has great barrel rates and elite bat speed, but was already losing playing time to a platoon, and the arrival of Masataka Yoshida (a player who they would probably want to play to build value in hopes of flipping him at the deadline) means PT is even more scarce, and it doesn’t help that Abreu’s xwOBA went below league average in his last 100 PA. The power makes him a must-hold in 15-team formats, but in shallow 12-team formats with 3 OF, I’d be looking for hitters with more current momentum and a better playing time outlook, since those missed days quietly do real damage.
Dishonorable Mention: Ryan O’Hearn (1B/OF, Baltimore Orioles) – It hurts me to say, especially as I roster him in many leagues, but as a platoon bat, in a lineup with too many mouths to feed (ORIOLES TRADE A FRIGGIN HITTER ALREADY!) the fact he’s been slumping at this opportune moment puts him behind the plethora of more powerful 1B options. I’m unsure if he’s a straight drop, but if you have a league mate who uses Statcast sliders to make decisions (I’ve been guilty of this), you might still get a decent return in a trade.
15-team
Ben Rice (1B/C, New York Yankees)
This one really hurts me, and Rice has fried me multiple times being as I’m constantly flipping back and forth like I’m Tevye and he’s my disobedient daughter. If we’re using that analogy, Stanton is Laser Wolf, and by Laser I mean his ridiculous exit velocity hits. But he’s also the big money earner, and with a few homers this week, he’s earning his keep enough that the Yankees will keep running him out at DH more often than not, and Rice hasn’t forced the issue with his recent weaker quality of contact. The peripherals might look nice on your shelf, but with just a .194 AVG and no homers in 36 AB the past 3 weeks, and only 9 AB this past week, you really hurt yourself by starting him.
Dishonorable Mention: Tyler O’Neill (OF, Baltimore Orioles) – It’s been an ugly return back from the IL, and with the emergence of Ramon Laureano as a serious fantasy contributor (as well as a much stronger defender), he’s going to have to do better to be in consideration for regular playing time. You can always try to jump back in if he starts to prove it.
Deep Leagues
Jake McCarthy (OF, Arizona Diamondbacks)
He had his chance, and he did okay. But with the surprisingly swift return of Carroll, he’s looking at less playing time, and it’s not like the 2 stolen bases he’s had over 45 AB the past 3 weeks (0 in 12 AB this week) gave you what you were hoping for anyway.
Ben Williamson (3B, Seattle Mariners)
This has been rough week to be a hitter named Ben! If you play in a deep enough league, you might find someone so eager to play the hot hand that they see Williamson’s .313 AVG for the week and are willing to give you something for him. Do it. Do it now. His xBA on the season is just .233 with an awful .311 xSLG, if the 1, count’em, one, homer in 256 PA didn’t tell you. He’s basically Nick Allen at third base for now, and I doubt he remains a starter for much longer. Cut in all leagues except those that have a category for longest homerless streak.
