Welcome to this week’s Buy & Sell, where this week’s theme is, “Oh, so you think you’re Smart, Alec?” Yes I have not one, but two Alecs in my sells today, where our buys are a mix of waiver adds and buy lows, though I recognize that Kurtz and probably Ramirez were already claimed long ago, I try to remember that some leagues might be casual enough that they’re still around. Never assume and always check the wire, sometimes gifts will come your way. On to the list!
BUY
10-team
Brent Rooker (UT, Athletics)
YES I KNOW HE WAS DRAFTED. And I sure hope after a few ho-hum weeks he wasn’t dropped. But although his current line of .250 with 7 Home Runs in 120 AB is quite good, the fact that he’s been overshadowed by many other upstart hitters means he’s suddenly a “boring” buy-low when I think his fantasy value could be among the top hitters in the game.
The first reason is a bit sneaky as it involves the shiny new power toy in Oakland. The arrival of Nick Kurtz has forced both Rooker and Tyler Soderstrom to get reps in the outfield, and Rooker is already at four games, meaning he needs just one more game to qualify in many leagues. Once that happens, the new eligibility will likely show up on his player page, so you won’t be able to sneak his eligibility by people. But note that, had he not been UT only, he probably would have gone at least a round earlier on draft day.
Even if his position needs nothing to you, because you’ve been blessed with not needing an upgrade at outfield or play in an all-utility slot league (does this actually exist? I’m intrigued), his bat alone makes him a buy-low. Sure, you can argue that it’s mildly concerning that he’s not quite hitting last year’s gargantuan power numbers as his MaxEV is down from 113 mph to 110 mph, and his barrel% from 17% to 14%, But let’s face it, we kind of all knew last year’s campaign wasn’t repeatable, but could stave off the regression monster with the new park.
Reports on the park seem to indicate it should really be a bandbox when the temperatures rise in the summer, and Statcast likes Rooker more than last year, with a .285 xBA to go with his exactly identical .557 xSLG. And they don’t take the park factors into effect, especially with one they hardly even have data on. He could be an even bigger run production monster with the big bats of Soderstrom and Kurtz backing him with other improved hitters like Soderstrom, Wilson, and Luis Urias rounding things out. I’d expect a .255-.260 with 40 homers and a handful of SBs with nearly 200 R+RBI, and I’d try to flip a flashier guy like Agustin Ramirez or Jordan Beck to get a high-floor slugger like Rooker in all leagues.
Sal Perez (C, Kansas City Royals)
He’s been one of the unluckiest players in the majors, and not just because he is hella slow (though, he really IS hella slow). But the aging champ still just keeps getting it done, though some people’s inherent ageism influencing assumptions may cause some to want to get out from Sal’s .225 AVG and just 2 HR in 111 AB. A single look at his Statcast page makes it rather obvious why this makes him a prime buy-low and saves me some words.
But I’ll tell you anyway, because I don’t like assigning homework. I’m the cool teacher, i even drop an occasional swear word so they think I’m edgy (just no swears here, I’ll be good Nick, I promise!). He’s been crushing the ball but Statcast says he’s been horribly unlucky, as his xBA is .309 and xSLG is .589. That’s 92nd and 94th percentile respectively, which I shouldn’t need to tell you is good… especially considering that, remember, this is CATCHER. Sure, he won’t be on your wire unless your owner is, um, impulsive (euphemism here for “Bad at fantasy baseball”) but I’ve already sent out a bunch of 2-for-2 trades trying to cash in on Raleigh and upgrade at another position.
Bo Bichette (SS, Toronto Blue Jays)
There’s something mentally that happens when we see a big goose egg on the home run totals. But Bichette has been stinging the ball with a .339 xBA and .516 xSLG, so the homers will come. Buy now while the slump and fake power drought has instilled enough doubt to be able to get him at market price.
Agustin Ramirez (C, Miami Marlins)
Agustin, are you true, or are you Kyren Paris part 2? He’s already been taken with some ridiculous bids in most FAAB leagues, but in 10-team, there may be leagues still in which people have a hard time parting with their proven vets to take the plunge, especially as his batting average has plunged from it’s unsustainable highs earlier in the week. Given his elite bat speed, high contact rate, and aggressiveness on the basepaths, I’d probably rank him just ahead of J.T. Realmuto for now, acknowledging he is far riskier but also far… reward-ier?
12-team
Jonathan Aranda (1B/2B, Tampa Bay Rays)
I know that after seeing his recent production decline, you probably wish you sold high. But I’m confident he will turn it Aranda. Unlike some other hot starts that quickly flamed out and took the expected production with it, Aranda’s xwOBA hasn’t declined one bit, and stayed consistently over .400 (which is excellent) over his past 50 PA.
Although I want to be a bit skeptical that he can maintain a 95 mph Average EV, it’s worth noting that he was comfortably between 45% and 50% HardHit% the past two years and then his Max went up another mile an hour to a career-best 111 mph. Given Brandon Lowe’s struggles, I think he can even start to eat into his time at 2B, and in leagues where Aranda already has 2B eligibility, he is immensely more valuable given the sorry state of the position (seriously it’s hard to think of one top 150 ADP second baseman who has actually delivered on their draft day value so far. This could end up looking like a poor man’s Joey Votto but with less OBP, and again, eligible in some at 2B.
Carson Kelly (C, Chicago Cubs)
I’m suddenly nostalgic for TRL on MTV, because right now all I want is Carson Daily. Partial playing time share or not, there comes a point when he keeps hitting so outrageously that you have to consider that he might just be for real. Although he’s honestly probably the least probable candidate to be one of Statcast’s best hitters, he’s currently sporting an insane 8% K% and even wilder 23% BB% which is tops in baseball, along with being 98th percentile or better for his xAVG, xSLG, and HardHit%.
Sure maybe it’s cherry-picked since he’s been splitting at-bats still with Miguel Amaya for some reason, and surely it’ll regress, especially since the idea that the 30-year-old suddenly became the next Aaron Judge is belied by the fact that his MaxEV is just 106 mph, the lowest of his career and actually even lower than Luis Arraez. But he has had elite swing decisions with both an incredibly stingy 13% O-Swing% and an aggressive 73% Z-Swing%. Like, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a Z-Swing% – O-Swing% as good as that (60%) since I started using the shorthand stat. So even though his 84% is only slightly better than past years, he has a career-best 7% SwStr%, and what’s truly eye-popping his his 20% CSW%, which is 8% less than last year. Put that on your plate!
Now, with only 63 AB, the sample size is still small and this could all change quicky. But I do think he’s distanced himself from Miguel Amaya as the preferred option, especially as he was originally valued for his superior defense.
Jorge Polanco (2B, Seattle Mariners)
He’s had a phenomenal five-dinger week, and is now hitting an unreal .389/.423/.819 with 9 home runs and 1 SB in 79 PA for the Mariners. Unlike Carson Kelly, he’s been playing full-time, making it all the more impressive, but what’s most impressive, is he’s doing this while being Jorge Polanco. Y’know, the guy who only returned to Seattle because no one else remotely wanted him.
Statcast actually believes him all the way, with a algorithm-breaking .395 xBA and .755 xSLG, which are both best in baseball. It is worth noting that compared to Kelly, I don’t see a majors change in his peripherals to justify the unbelievable drop of his K% from 29% in 2024 to just 11% this year. While the 79% Contact% is his best mark since 2021, the only real change is more aggressiveness in the zone, raising his Z-Swing% from 63% to 72%, which has helped keep down his CSW%. Granted, it’s the 57% HardHit% that’s really driving this streak, and I do have doubts if that’s sustainable, but if he’s on your wire, add him now anyway because he’s the arguably the best-performing 2B in the majors so far.
15-team
Edgar Quero (C, Chicago White Sox)
Quero, te quiero. He was certainly the less-hyped option that Agustin, but he could end up quietly being the better one. His 39% HardHit% and 0 barrels thus far do leave a bit to be desired, but his plate discipline thus far has been extremely mature with a 22% O-Swing% and 71% Z-Swing%, combined with an elite 90% Contact%.
It’s possible if he can keep this up that could be a catcher-eligible Jacob Wilson except with walks, which can certainly work for him in a hitter-friendly home park. But it’s worth noting that I expect the peripherals to regress because his numbers and peripherals were all significantly worse in the minors, with a 2024 contact% of 79%.
Still, he could at least be what you hoped Gabriel Moreno this year could be, someone who hits .270-.290 with 1o+ homers, and there’s always upside for more. Add in all two-catcher leagues and single-catcher 15-team formats, especially in OBP formats.
Johan Rojas (OF, Philadelphia Phillies)
Whereas Rojas still mostly likely is what he always has been, an excellent defender but punchless hitter who gets stolen bases much like Jacob Young, there is a chance there’s more. He already set a new high MaxEV with a surprising 112 mph, nearly two points higher than his previous best, supported by a league-average 88 mph average EV and 33% HardHit%. And despite the unsightly career-worst 27% K% rate, his underlying stats suggest he should be actually posting career bests there, as he suddenly has an elite 94% Z-Contact% that’s up 8 points from his career 86%.
That gives him a plus Swinging Strike% of 8%, and an above-average CSW% of 25%, a big jump from his previously below-average rate of 30%. Given that he’s still young and developing at 25 years old, he’s a sneaky buy-low in dynasty formats, especially since he’s raising his launch angle. While Statcast is pessimistic on him, they are that way on almost all speedsters, and I think he will improve from his unusually low line drive rate of 5% since it’s a generally noisy stat. He’s a great spec add or streamer for speed in 15-team batting average leagues.
Luis Urias (2B/3B, Athletics)
Yes, I know I wrote him up last week as a deep leagues add, and I’m doubling down mostly due to the huge jump in Z-Contact% from 85% to 97% and a career-best 18% O-Swing% making him a solid injury replacement for Jordan Westburg with sneaky power, especially when that Sacramento home park heats up and the A’s suddenly awesome offense gets even crazier.
Deep Leagues
Ramon Urias (3B, Baltimore Orioles)
Now that Westburg is down, Ramon, I’d like to see Urias to the occasion. The Orioles’ Urias is pretty boring despite a hot start to the year in batting average, and after a small slump is now hitting .279 with one homer in 68 AB. Given the Orioles’ lineup, you’d probably expect a bit more run production than his lackluster 8 RBI and 4 R, but even while ailing, the lineup still is decent, and he should at least be solid.
Andrew McCutchen (UT, Pittsburgh Pirates)
He’s a pro, he’s not just a mascot, and definitely not a Andrew Mascotchen. His Statcast page has plenty of red and he’s hitting for high barrel rates and exit velocities, deserving better than his already cromulent line of .275 with 3 HR and 1 SB in 91 AB. He’s probably viable in 15-team formats as well, but the major challenge with him is his utility-only designation in most leagues. But in spite of that, the well-rounded offensive profile makes him a must-add in deeper leagues, unless you roster one of the elite UTs and don’t have space to take him and hold him ’til his trade value rises.
SELL
10-team
Xavier Edwards (SS, Miami Marlins)
Lately I’ve been calling him Professor Xavier, because his legs don’t work. So now he’s becoming one of my ex-men. Now, I get that maybe I’m being too harsh, given that he does still have 6 SB on the year even if he hasn’t done much for me lately. Still, compared to last year’s 31 SB in a partial season, if you extrapolated his current pace to last year’s PA total, he’d only have 14 stolen bases. But wait, I have good news! It was actually 14.45, so if you like irresponsibly rounding up, it’s almost half of last year’s total! Oh wait, now you’re crying, great.
There are really signs that make me wonder if the batting average will at least come back, as he’s hitting for an improved 88% contact% this year, though it’s somewhat canceled out by worse swing decisions. He also improved his MaxEV by almost 3 miles an hour, but his new MaxEV of 106 mph is still well-below league average, and he still probably won’t hit any homers that aren’t inside-the-park. He had missed time with a sore knee earlier in the year, and one wonders if he’s being less aggressive to keep it safe. He was caught in two of his past three attempts, so maybe he won’t get the green light as often. Without an elite stolen base total, he becomes entirely dependent on batting average to have value, and I’d much rather take my chances on the Chandler Simpsons and Victor Scotts who at least seem to offer more category juice, and at the shortstop position, I’d much rather have a more well-rounded player who isn’t an absolute zero in power, like Jeremy Pena (maybe too late to get him) or Dansby.
Alec Bohm (3B, Philadelphia Phillies)
Look, I’ve learned about dialectics in therapy training, and two things can be true. Bohm can be unlucky and bound to improve, and yet still be a player we can drop. Like, he’s hitting the ball harder than ever, YES! He’s also actually also making more contact, with a career-best 88% Contact% and 6% SwStr%. And yet, there he is, sitting in my 12-teamer, with not a single homer, and after a month has gone by, can you really still hold a player like this? Statcast says he’s unlucky, but the batting average he deserves is not .300, but rather .268, with an improved xSLG of .398. But wait, that’s still not good.
Given his lack of contribution on the basepaths, he just is too hard to hold over some of the interesting new 3B options that are emerging. The thing about dropping him is that in a 10-team format, you can probably wait for him to finally heat up and still pick him up then, because the surface stats still look so drab. I will say I think the walk rate should improve given his strong chase rate, and I feel conflicted about this sell call, but I simply think that the best-case scenario upside is just not enough to make him 10-team viable, especially in OBP formats, and he’s arguably near the chopping block in 12-team OBP as well depending on the alternatives.
12-team
Jorge Soler (OF, Los Angeles Angels)
Jorge’s peripherals are making me So-leery of him. He was one of my favorite preseason targets as a rebound candidate given his strong underlying stats last year, but it’s looking like age may be catching up to him. His rolling wOBA has just been tumbling downhill. His 31% K% seems to be the main culprit, as that’s a big decline from his much more passable 25% K% last year. But even as far as the raw power goes, his 113 mph MaxEV this year is down from his mark of 115 mph last year, and it’s seeming obvious he won’t recapture the 117 mph of his peak seasons. Although I liked him for the park upgrade, I don’t trust the Angels hitting coaching to fix him.
Jasson Dominguez (OF, New York Yankees)
At the end of the day, The Martian looks like the Merely Pedestrian. Although he is still 22 and he does at least have a strong 50% HardHit%, his Statcast page looks as blue and white as pinstripes. His Achilles Heel may be his contact struggles, as a 32% K% is a major problem, and his ho-hum 2 HR and 3 SB are not enough to compensate, especially in this environment. An optimist can point to his improved launch angle, but I just don’t see enough here to think he’s relevant in 12-team batting average league redrafts, especially not in three-outfielder formats.
15-team
Kameron Misner (OF, Tampa Bay Rays)
Miss the opportunity to sell high on him now and you might end up being Misnerable. He’s one of those hot start players who hasn’t cooled off rapidly enough for it to because obvious. but he’s definitely outperforming his expected stats with his .311 AVG and .554 SLG%. Statcast looks at that and fa… passes gas in its general direction with a .230 xBA and .400 xSLG. Although his 72% Contact% is passable, I think his swing decisions are lacking, leading to a mediocre 30% CSW% and a mediocre batted ball quality. Given his pop-up nature, you probably can’t get much in a trade for him, but I still think if you wait longer, you’ll get less.
Alec Burleson (1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals)
His playing time situation makes me want to Alec hurl, son. The puns get worse as my deep league morale declines. If you look at his hitting bottom line, you probably wouldn’t see a problem… at least until you looked at the total plate appearances or game logs. He simply hasn’t played much at all the past few weeks, supposedly due to his poor defense. Given his strong season last year, it might seem a bit surprising they would kneecap the burly contact hitter. But I see what they see behind the plate.
He hasn’t hit a single barrel this year, and even though he wasn’t a high-barrel player last year, that’s pretty unexpected for a player of his type a month into the season. His HardHit% is also down to just 35%, and his chase rate also went up to an unsightly 41%. He’s kind of stuck in not having enough power or contact ability to be more than replacement level, and then the defense is just the final nail.
Deep Leagues
Javier Sanoja (OF, Miami Marlins)
Guten tag, glad his name isn’t Miguel, because he is the opposite of Sano, ja? is a bit of a Fool’s Gold pickup, which is too bad because he was one of my favorite deep sleepers in the preseason, but now is succeeding despite not doing any of the things I liked. After a slow start, he started turning some deep league heads after hitting .314 with 1 HR and 1 SB in 55 PA. The 22-year-old has literally zero power, like Xavier Edwards, but without his speed.
I hoped that maybe he’d run like he did a few years in the minors where he stole 20 bags. Nope. I thought he’d keep a really low K% to approach a .300 average. Nope. His extreme passivity has him only swinging at 55% of strikes, while swinging at 33% of balls. So while his SwStr% is a strong 6%, his CSW% which I care more about, is below average at 30% (league average is about 28%). Without limiting strikeouts, I don’t trust the average, and neither does Statcast as he has an xBA of .254. He’s nothing more than a last-resort roster filler in deep leagues as a guy who can get at-bats or in dynasty leagues where you hope he can talk to hitting coaches and pick up Javier SomeKnow-How.
Alan Roden (OF, Toronto Blue Jays)
There’s no valor or honor in watching 47 Roden. He was a popular pick in the spring, hoping he could pull off a diet Steven Kwan as a guy who could kitchen sink his way to value, but once the real season rolled around, he stopped hitting the ball with authority, and now Varsho’s back to make silly amazing falling catches and eliminate Roden’s playing time.
Kyle Isbel (OF, Kansas City Royals)
Maybe you look at last year and can tell yourself a story of deep league value, especially since he’s racking up at-bats. But he’s notably worse than least year in almost every way except the surface stats, thanks to a huge drop in his hard contact to just 85 mph AVG EV, 26% HardHit%, and 2% Barrel%. He may lead the league in getting his bat knocked out of his hands.
